Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 0.010232 0.011558 0.012993 0.014660 0.016544 0.018608 0.021042
2025-11-16 0.008155 0.009989 0.012139 0.014846 0.018168 0.022115 0.027167
2025-11-23 0.006861 0.008884 0.011389 0.014723 0.019051 0.024489 0.031857
2025-11-30 0.006138 0.008317 0.011140 0.015073 0.020420 0.027454 0.037442
2025-12-07 0.005298 0.007466 0.010386 0.014615 0.020600 0.028792 0.040907
2025-12-14 0.004701 0.006859 0.009870 0.014386 0.021011 0.030408 0.044819
2025-12-21 0.004154 0.006257 0.009285 0.013975 0.021081 0.031496 0.048007
2025-12-28 0.003932 0.006102 0.009319 0.014452 0.022474 0.034594 0.054418
2026-01-04 0.003689 0.005884 0.009232 0.014724 0.023557 0.037287 0.060409
2026-01-11 0.003491 0.005716 0.009198 0.015065 0.024757 0.040236 0.067035
2026-01-18 0.003220 0.005404 0.008906 0.014954 0.025204 0.041994 0.071833
2026-01-25 0.002996 0.005147 0.008678 0.014922 0.025765 0.043964 0.077124
2026-02-01 0.002743 0.004823 0.008318 0.014647 0.025908 0.045271 0.081443
2026-02-08 0.002592 0.004663 0.008224 0.014823 0.026848 0.048024 0.088568
2026-02-15 0.002408 0.004428 0.007976 0.014700 0.027236 0.049819 0.094086
2026-02-22 0.002312 0.004344 0.007990 0.015049 0.028506 0.053295 0.103016
2026-03-01 0.002111 0.004046 0.007590 0.014592 0.028224 0.053870 0.106440
2026-03-08 0.001960 0.003831 0.007323 0.014363 0.028353 0.055216 0.111460
2026-03-15 0.001800 0.003584 0.006978 0.013953 0.028088 0.055771 0.114930
2026-03-22 0.001759 0.003569 0.007079 0.014429 0.029625 0.059982 0.126200
2026-03-29 0.001697 0.003506 0.007079 0.014701 0.030763 0.063472 0.136256
2026-04-05 0.001646 0.003462 0.007111 0.015041 0.032067 0.067397 0.147560
2026-04-12 0.001552 0.003321 0.006936 0.014930 0.032405 0.069327 0.154685